Oil Firms as FX Awaits FOMC Minutes | 18th February, 2026

Oil Up, FX Cautious

Global markets are showing a mixed tone as oil prices edge higher while currency markets tread cautiously ahead of the release of the FOMC Minutes. WTI crude is holding above the $62.00 mark, supported by ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence supply dynamics. In the FX space, antipodean currencies are in focus: AUD/NZD pushes above 1.1750 after the RBNZ held rates steady, while NZD/USD slides toward 0.6000 as policymakers downplay hawkish prospects. Meanwhile, AUD/USD trades with a negative bias below 0.7100, and EUR/USD consolidates around the mid-1.1800s as traders await fresh policy signals from the Federal Reserve.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude edges higher above the $62.00 level as markets monitor ongoing US-Iran negotiations that could influence global supply dynamics. Price action reflects cautious optimism amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: US-Iran negotiations remain central, with potential easing of sanctions affecting supply outlook.

US Economic Data: Demand expectations remain tied to US growth resilience.

FOMC Outcome: Dollar direction following the Fed minutes may influence oil pricing.

Trade Policy: Stable global trade conditions support medium-term demand.

Monetary Policy: Rate expectations shape broader risk sentiment and energy demand forecasts.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Gradual recovery within broader range.

Resistance: $63.20

Support: $61.40

Forecast: Further gains possible if geopolitical tensions persist or supply risks re-emerge; however, upside may be capped by Dollar strength.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Mildly constructive.

Catalysts: US-Iran headlines, inventory data, FOMC minutes, USD movement.

AUD/NZD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/NZD climbs above 1.1750 after the RBNZ kept rates unchanged, while markets turn attention to the upcoming Australian employment report.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct impact on the cross.

Australian Data: Employment figures may reinforce or challenge RBA policy expectations.

RBNZ Policy: Rate hold and cautious tone reduce NZD support.

Trade Policy: Regional trade stability supports both currencies.

Monetary Policy Divergence: Shifting RBA-RBNZ expectations drive cross momentum.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Short-term bullish bias.

Resistance: 1.1820

Support: 1.1680

Forecast: Upside potential remains if Australian labor data surprises positively.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Constructive on AUD relative to NZD.

Catalysts: Australian employment report, central bank commentary.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades with a negative bias below 0.7100 as traders position cautiously ahead of the FOMC Minutes and key domestic data releases.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Stable backdrop limits safe-haven flows.

US Economic Data: Dollar steadiness pressures the pair.

FOMC Outcome: Fed tone remains the dominant near-term driver.

Trade Policy: China-linked trade dynamics remain a structural factor.

Monetary Policy: Diverging Fed-RBA expectations weigh on AUD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish within consolidation.

Resistance: 0.7125

Support: 0.7040

Forecast: Downside risks persist unless FOMC Minutes lean dovish and weaken the USD.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, Australian employment data, US yields.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD dives toward 0.6000 after RBNZ commentary downplays hawkish prospects, dampening expectations for further tightening.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Limited direct influence.

RBNZ Communication: Dovish tone reduces yield appeal of the Kiwi.

US Economic Data: Dollar resilience adds downward pressure.

Trade Policy: Stable regional trade flows offer limited support.

Monetary Policy: Diverging Fed-RBNZ outlook weighs on NZD.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Bearish momentum.

Resistance: 0.6065

Support: 0.5980

Forecast: Sustained break below 0.6000 could extend losses unless the Fed signals a softer stance.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bearish.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, further RBNZ remarks, risk appetite shifts.

EUR/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

EUR/USD consolidates around the mid-1.1800s as traders refrain from taking strong positions ahead of the FOMC Minutes.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Contained tensions limit safe-haven demand.

US Economic Data: Stable US yields support the Dollar.

FOMC Outcome: Minutes could clarify timing of rate adjustments.

Trade Policy: Limited immediate impact.

Monetary Policy Divergence: ECB-Fed expectations remain central to medium-term direction.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Sideways consolidation.

Resistance: 1.1860

Support: 1.1780

Forecast: Breakout potential hinges on the tone of the FOMC Minutes.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Neutral and data-dependent.

Catalysts: FOMC minutes, US Treasury yields, Eurozone macro data.

Wrap-Up

With the FOMC Minutes looming, currency markets remain range-bound as participants look for clarity on the Fed’s rate trajectory. A hawkish tone could reinforce Dollar strength and maintain pressure on high-beta currencies, while a dovish shift may provide relief to the AUD, NZD, and EUR. In commodities, oil’s direction will continue to hinge on geopolitical developments and supply expectations. Overall, volatility may pick up sharply once the Fed’s policy signals are digested across FX and energy markets.

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