Markets Mixed as Oil Firms on Iran Tensions, FX Awaits Policy Signals | 15th January 2026

Oil Firms, FX Cautious

Global markets trade mixed as investors weigh firming oil prices driven by renewed geopolitical tensions in Iran against a cautious FX landscape. Currency markets remain subdued as traders await clearer policy signals from major central banks, keeping risk appetite contained and price action range-bound across major pairs.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude is trading modestly higher above $60.00, stabilizing after recent volatility. Prices are supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, even as demand-side concerns remain present.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing protests in Iran have raised concerns over potential supply disruptions in a key oil-producing region.

• US Economic Data: Mixed US macro signals continue to cloud the demand outlook for energy markets.

• FOMC Outcome: A cautious Fed stance keeps growth expectations restrained, indirectly limiting aggressive oil buying.

• Trade Policy: No major trade developments have emerged, keeping oil price moves largely sentiment-driven.

• Monetary Policy: Tight global monetary conditions continue to weigh on longer-term demand expectations.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: The short-term trend remains sideways with a mild bullish bias above $60.00.

• Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen near $61.80, followed by $63.00.

• Support: Key support rests at $59.50, with a deeper floor near $58.30.

• Forecast: WTI is likely to consolidate above $60.00 unless geopolitical risks escalate materially.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Sentiment is cautiously constructive but lacks strong conviction.

• Catalysts: Middle East headlines and upcoming US inventory data could drive the next move.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CNY remains stable after the PBOC set the daily fixing at 7.0064, slightly stronger than the previous reference. The move reinforces Beijing’s preference for exchange-rate stability.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Geopolitical tensions remain secondary for the Yuan compared to domestic policy control.

• US Economic Data: US data continues to influence broad USD direction, indirectly impacting USD/CNY.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a cautious Fed reduce sharp upside pressure on the pair.

• Trade Policy: Trade dynamics remain stable, with no new escalation affecting the Yuan.

• Monetary Policy: The PBOC continues to actively guide the currency to prevent excessive volatility.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: The pair remains range-bound under strong policy management.

• Resistance: Resistance is seen near 7.0350, followed by 7.0600.

• Support: Immediate support lies at 7.0000, with a stronger level near 6.9850.

• Forecast: USD/CNY is expected to trade in a narrow range around the 7.00 level.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral, with confidence in PBOC control.

• Catalysts: Daily fixings and liquidity operations from the PBOC.

GBP/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

GBP/USD is hovering near 1.3450, testing short-term resistance at the nine-day EMA. Price action reflects consolidation following recent USD-driven volatility.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global geopolitical uncertainty keeps risk appetite fragile, limiting Sterling momentum.

• US Economic Data: Upcoming US releases continue to dictate near-term direction for the pair.

• FOMC Outcome: Ongoing concerns about Fed policy credibility weigh on the US Dollar.

• Trade Policy: Trade-related developments remain a background factor for GBP pricing.

• Monetary Policy: Diverging expectations between the Fed and BoE keep the pair sensitive to rate outlooks.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: The short-term trend is neutral with signs of stabilization.

• Resistance: Key resistance is located at 1.3450, followed by 1.3520.

• Support: Support is found near 1.3350, with a lower level at 1.3280.

• Forecast: A sustained break above 1.3450 could allow a gradual recovery toward mid-1.35 levels.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautious but slightly constructive.

• Catalysts: US macro data, Fed speakers, and risk sentiment shifts.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY remains elevated near recent highs as Yen weakness persists. Political and trade-related remarks continue to limit safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: egional geopolitical risks have not translated into sustained Yen demand.

• US Economic Data: Resilient US data supports higher Treasury yields, favoring USD/JPY upside.

• FOMC Outcome: The Fed’s cautious but restrictive stance keeps yield differentials wide.

• Trade Policy: Trade-related comments add uncertainty but fail to reverse Yen weakness.

• Monetary Policy: BoJ normalization doubts remain a major headwind for the Yen.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: The trend remains bullish for USD/JPY.

• Resistance: Resistance is seen at 160.80, followed by 162.00.

• Support: Initial support lies at 158.90, then 157.50.

• Forecast: The pair is likely to stay supported unless the BoJ signals a clear policy shift.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Bearish toward the Yen.

• Catalysts: BoJ commentary, US yields, and political headlines.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD trades below 0.6700 as softer Australian inflation expectations weigh on the currency. The pair remains vulnerable amid a firm US Dollar environment.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty continues to pressure risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD.

• US Economic Data: Stronger US data reinforces USD demand against the Aussie.

• FOMC Outcome: Expectations of a patient Fed limit AUD/USD recovery attempts.

• Trade Policy: Stable trade conditions provide little fresh support for the Australian Dollar.

• Monetary Policy: Reduced pressure on the RBA to stay hawkish weighs on AUD sentiment.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: The short-term trend is mildly bearish.

• Resistance: Resistance is located at 0.6725, followed by 0.6780.

• Support: Support levels are seen at 0.6660 and 0.6600.

• Forecast: AUD/USD may remain under pressure while price stays below 0.6700.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Defensive and risk-averse.

• Catalysts: Australian data releases, US inflation figures, and broader risk sentiment.

Wrap-Up

Looking ahead, market focus remains on evolving geopolitical developments and upcoming policy guidance that could set the next directional move across commodities and currencies. Until clearer signals emerge, traders are likely to stay defensive, favoring selective positioning and short-term opportunities amid ongoing uncertainty.

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