Dollar Firms as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Slow | 5th February, 2026

Dollar Firms, Fed Slows

Global markets trade cautiously as the US Dollar firms amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of potential rate cuts. This shift in policy outlook has supported the Greenback against major currencies, pressuring the Japanese Yen and lifting USD/CAD, while the Australian Dollar finds selective support. In commodities, WTI crude stabilizes near $64 as traders balance US-Iran diplomacy against persistent supply glut risks, while China’s currency remains closely guided by the PBOC.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Current Price and Context

WTI crude is stabilizing around the $64.00 level as markets balance expectations of potential US-Iran talks against persistent concerns over a global supply glut. Cautious risk sentiment and policy uncertainty continue to limit directional conviction.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Prospects of US-Iran negotiations raise the possibility of increased supply.

• US Economic Data: Slowing global growth signals cloud demand expectations.

• FOMC Outcome: Reduced urgency for Fed rate cuts weighs on risk appetite.

• Trade Policy: Ongoing trade frictions continue to cap demand optimism.

• Monetary Policy: Higher-for-longer rate expectations pressure energy consumption outlooks.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Sideways consolidation.

• Resistance: $65.80

• Support: $62.40

• Forecast: WTI is likely to remain range-bound unless supply expectations shift materially.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral with a cautious bias.

• Catalysts: US-Iran headlines, inventory data, demand outlook updates.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD is trading with mild upside as the Australian Dollar finds support despite a firmer US Dollar, following domestic trade data and shifting expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty tempers risk appetite for high-beta currencies.

• US Economic Data: Resilient US data underpins Dollar strength.

• FOMC Outcome: Slower Fed easing expectations limit AUD upside.

• Trade Policy: China-linked trade dynamics remain relevant for the Aussie.

• Monetary Policy: RBA’s cautious stance keeps gains measured.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Mild recovery within a broader range.

• Resistance: 0.6640

• Support: 0.6520

• Forecast: AUD/USD may struggle to extend gains while USD remains supported.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously neutral.

• Catalysts: US data releases, Fed commentary, China-related developments.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY remains elevated near a two-week high as the Japanese Yen continues to struggle amid fiscal concerns and political uncertainty, despite broader risk-aware market conditions.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty supports USD demand over the Yen.

• US Economic Data: Firm data reinforces yield differentials in favor of the USD.

• FOMC Outcome: Slower pace of Fed rate cuts supports USD/JPY upside.

• Trade Policy: Trade-related uncertainty reinforces defensive positioning.

• Monetary Policy: Policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ remains pronounced.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Mild bullish bias.

• Resistance: 149.20

• Support: 147.60

• Forecast: USD/JPY may remain supported unless intervention risks intensify.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish USD/JPY.

• Catalysts: Japanese fiscal headlines, MOF commentary, US yields.

USD/CAD Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CAD is pushing toward the 1.3700 level as the US Dollar strengthens on expectations that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of potential rate cuts, while oil price stability limits CAD losses.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: Global uncertainty supports defensive USD flows.

• US Economic Data: Firm data bolsters Dollar demand.

• FOMC Outcome: Reduced rate cut expectations favor USD positioning.

• Trade Policy: Trade-related risks continue to influence sentiment.

• Monetary Policy: Fed-BoC policy divergence supports USD/CAD upside.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Mild bullish continuation.

• Resistance: 1.3740

• Support: 1.3600

• Forecast: USD/CAD may remain supported as long as Fed expectations dominate.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish.

• Catalysts: Oil prices, Fed communication, Canadian data releases.

USD/CNY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/CNY is trading steadily after the PBOC set the daily fixing at 6.9570, slightly weaker than the previous reference, reinforcing its managed approach amid ongoing global policy uncertainty.

Key Drivers

• Geopolitical Risks: External geopolitical tensions remain a background factor.

• US Economic Data: Dollar strength continues to influence offshore Yuan pricing.

• FOMC Outcome: Slower Fed easing expectations support USD demand.

• Trade Policy: US-China trade considerations remain a key sensitivity.

• Monetary Policy: PBOC fixing guidance aims to limit volatility.

Technical Outlook

• Trend: Sideways with slight upside bias.

• Resistance: 6.9850

• Support: 6.9400

• Forecast: USD/CNY is likely to remain range-bound under active policy management.

Sentiment and Catalysts

• Market Sentiment: Neutral and policy-driven.

• Catalysts: Daily PBOC fixings, US-China developments.

Wrap-Up

Overall, markets remain sensitive to evolving Fed expectations, with a slower path toward rate cuts reinforcing Dollar resilience across FX markets. While commodities and Asia-Pacific currencies show mixed reactions, policy signals from central banks continue to dominate near-term direction. With geopolitical developments, fiscal concerns, and monetary policy guidance in focus, volatility is likely to stay elevated as traders reassess positioning.

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