Gold and Silver Bounce Back on Safe-Haven Demand | 4th February, 2026

Gold & Silver Rebound

Global markets are trading cautiously as softer US Dollar momentum, geopolitical risks, and shifting central bank expectations drive a renewed bid for safe-haven assets, pushing Gold and Silver sharply higher. In FX, moves are more mixed, with the Australian Dollar holding firm ahead of key US data, the Japanese Yen weakening despite a hawkish BoJ backdrop, and the New Zealand Dollar remaining under pressure following mixed labour market signals, reflecting ongoing divergence across major currencies.

AUD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

AUD/USD is holding near recent highs after extending gains supported by stronger Australia and China services activity data. The US Dollar remains subdued ahead of the ISM Services PMI, keeping the pair range-bound with a mild bullish bias.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Broader risk sentiment remains a background influence but is not the primary driver today.

US Economic Data: The ISM Services PMI is in focus and could reinforce USD softness if it underperforms.

FOMC Outcome: Uncertainty around the Fed’s easing path continues to limit strong USD buying.

Trade Policy: China-linked growth and trade dynamics remain important for AUD direction.

Monetary Policy: Expectations for further RBA tightening continue to underpin the Australian Dollar.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Gradual bullish bias within a short-term recovery phase.

Resistance: 0.7090 remains the next upside barrier.

Support: 0.6960 is the key near-term support level.

Forecast: AUD/USD may remain supported unless US data significantly surprises to the upside.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautiously bullish.

Catalysts: ISM Services PMI, US employment data, China-related developments.

Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Gold has surged above the $5,000 psychological level and extended gains beyond $5,050 as safe-haven demand strengthens. The move is reinforced by softer US Dollar dynamics and expectations for a more accommodative Fed policy path.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Elevated geopolitical tensions continue to drive defensive positioning.

US Economic Data: Incoming data may influence yields but has so far failed to cap Gold’s upside.

FOMC Outcome: Dovish Fed expectations support demand for non-yielding assets.

Trade Policy: Policy uncertainty adds a secondary layer of support for bullion.

Monetary Policy: Rate-cut expectations remain a key structural tailwind for Gold.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Strong bullish continuation.

Resistance: 5,050 is the immediate upside hurdle.

Support: 5,000 remains the first key support level.

Forecast: Gold may stay well supported while geopolitical and policy risks persist.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Bullish with a defensive tilt.

Catalysts: Geopolitical headlines, US yields, Fed communication.

Silver (XAG/USD) Forecast

Current Price and Context

Silver has rebounded sharply, climbing back above the $87.50 level after a recent pullback. The recovery is driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical concerns.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off flows are supporting precious metals demand.

US Economic Data: USD and real-rate expectations remain key for near-term momentum.

FOMC Outcome: Shifts in Fed expectations continue to influence metals volatility.

Trade Policy: Broader macro uncertainty supports hedging demand.

Monetary Policy: Tighter market conditions and positioning adjustments are amplifying price swings.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Recovery phase following a sharp corrective move.

Resistance: 88.00 is the next upside area to watch.

Support: 87.50 is immediate support on pullbacks.

Forecast: Silver may remain volatile but biased higher while risk sentiment stays fragile.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Defensive and volatility-prone.

Catalysts: Geopolitical updates, USD moves, shifts in risk appetite.

USD/JPY Forecast

Current Price and Context

USD/JPY remains elevated as the Yen weakens under the weight of fiscal and political uncertainty in Japan. This comes despite a relatively hawkish Bank of Japan stance, which has so far failed to provide sustained support for the currency.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Global risk swings can influence flows, but domestic factors dominate Yen sentiment.

US Economic Data: US data may drive yield differentials and near-term direction.

FOMC Outcome: Fed easing expectations may limit USD upside over time.

Trade Policy: Broader policy uncertainty continues to influence market positioning.

Monetary Policy: BoJ tightening signals and intervention risks could cap further Yen weakness.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Mild bullish bias for USD/JPY.

Resistance: 156.50 is the next upside area.

Support: 156.00 is key near-term support.

Forecast: USD/JPY may remain elevated unless intervention rhetoric intensifies or US data softens.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Yen-negative but cautious.

Catalysts: Japanese political developments, official FX comments, US macro data.

NZD/USD Forecast

Current Price and Context

NZD/USD remains under pressure below the mid-0.6000 area following mixed New Zealand employment data. A cautious global risk tone continues to favour the US Dollar, limiting upside for the Kiwi.

Key Drivers

Geopolitical Risks: Risk-off sentiment supports USD demand and weighs on NZD.

US Economic Data: US releases remain key for broader Dollar direction.

FOMC Outcome: Expectations for Fed rate cuts may cap sustained USD strength.

Trade Policy: Global growth and trade dynamics remain important for NZD sentiment.

Monetary Policy: RBNZ’s hawkish stance helps limit downside pressure.

Technical Outlook

Trend: Consolidation with a slight bullish structural bias.

Resistance: 0.6050 caps near-term recovery attempts.

Support: 0.6000 remains a critical support level.

Forecast: NZD/USD may stay range-bound as long as 0.6000 holds.

Sentiment and Catalysts

Market Sentiment: Cautious and data-dependent.

Catalysts: Risk sentiment shifts, US data, RBNZ-Fed policy expectations.

Wrap-Up

Overall, investors remain in a risk-aware and defensive mindset, favouring precious metals as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty persist, while currency markets stay selective and data-dependent. With key US releases and central bank signals in focus, near-term price action is likely to remain sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and expectations around global monetary policy.

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