Weekly Trading News: February 2–6, 2026
GBP: BoE Interest Rate Decision
February 05, 14:00 MT time
The Bank of England is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged. Only a small minority of market participants see a rate cut as likely at this meeting. The market reasons for keeping the rate on hold are the mixed but resilient UK economic data. Although the inflation is still above the target, its excess won’t rush the BoE to ease policy too quickly. The last but not least reason for the cautious pause remains the fact of the Monetary Policy Committee's dividedness on the future steps. However, a neutral decision with hints of future cuts in March or later could weigh on the sterling. Conversely, a more hawkish tone, emphasising inflation risks, would support GBP.
February 05, 14:00 MT time
The Bank of England is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged. Only a small minority of market participants see a rate cut as likely at this meeting. The market reasons for keeping the rate on hold are the mixed but resilient UK economic data. Although the inflation is still above the target, its excess won’t rush the BoE to ease policy too quickly. The last but not least reason for the cautious pause remains the fact of the Monetary Policy Committee's dividedness on the future steps. However, a neutral decision with hints of future cuts in March or later could weigh on the sterling. Conversely, a more hawkish tone, emphasising inflation risks, would support GBP.
Affected instruments: GBPUSD, GBPEUR, GBPJPY, and other GBP-pairs.
EUR: ECB Interest Rate Decision
February 05, 15:15 MT time
The same forecast largely goes to the ECB as its officials have clearly signalled no urgency to change policy. The eurozone inflation is close to desired levels, and the economic growth remains weak but stable. These facts are giving the regulator more room to stay on hold. And the press conference guidance will matter more than the decision itself. A steady decision is basically neutral for the euro. A hawkish tilt (inflation persistence, wage pressure) could support the currency. At the same time, a dovish tone, featuring growth concerns, could put pressure on the EUR. Both central banks are in pause mode, with the focus shifting from “what they do” to “what they signal next”.
February 05, 15:15 MT time
The same forecast largely goes to the ECB as its officials have clearly signalled no urgency to change policy. The eurozone inflation is close to desired levels, and the economic growth remains weak but stable. These facts are giving the regulator more room to stay on hold. And the press conference guidance will matter more than the decision itself. A steady decision is basically neutral for the euro. A hawkish tilt (inflation persistence, wage pressure) could support the currency. At the same time, a dovish tone, featuring growth concerns, could put pressure on the EUR. Both central banks are in pause mode, with the focus shifting from “what they do” to “what they signal next”.
Affected instruments: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and other EUR-pairs.
USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)
February 06, 15:30 MT time
The job growth is expected to be moderate, roughly 50-70K new jobs will be added. The unemployment rate is expected to remain broadly stable. The recent and upcoming data suggest a cooling job market as the hiring momentum has slowed compared to previous years. Besides, wage growth stays in an important secondary focus because the market is especially sensitive to wage growth and revisions than to the headings only. All in all, weaker-than-expected NFP could strengthen expectations for the future Fed rate cut and pressure the USD. Stronger-than-expected NFP would support the greenback and push back rate-cut expectations. The market will be extremely data-dependent on this event.
February 06, 15:30 MT time
The job growth is expected to be moderate, roughly 50-70K new jobs will be added. The unemployment rate is expected to remain broadly stable. The recent and upcoming data suggest a cooling job market as the hiring momentum has slowed compared to previous years. Besides, wage growth stays in an important secondary focus because the market is especially sensitive to wage growth and revisions than to the headings only. All in all, weaker-than-expected NFP could strengthen expectations for the future Fed rate cut and pressure the USD. Stronger-than-expected NFP would support the greenback and push back rate-cut expectations. The market will be extremely data-dependent on this event.
Affected instruments: all
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